Planet on Track to Hit 3°C of Warming
Down and Out on the Paris Agreement: Planet on Track to Hit 3°C of Warming
A new UN report shows how the 1.5°C warming limit will be smashed by the end of the century. We take a look at this report to see, in light of the recent COP29 summit in Baku, what it means for people and the planet, and if there is anything that can be done to get us back on track.
“No More Hot Air… Please!” This was the title given to the latest United Nations Emissions Gap Report, an annual survey published to highlight the gap between the commitments made by the international community for improving carbon emissions and what’s needed to safeguard the planet against different climate change scenarios. Now in its 15th edition, as it yet again pleads with global decision makers and governments to take firm action to mitigate global warming, this new UN report comes with its starkest warning yet: the world is set to smash all previously held warming targets, and is now on track to reach 3.1°C by the end of the century. Under the new reality we find ourselves in, there seems almost zero chance of keeping the level of warming under the 1.5°C target enshrined in the Paris Agreement (2015).
Much of the analysis within this report is based on the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that, under the terms of the Paris treaty, must be submitted by participating nations every 5 years, and detail the measures and policies each national government will commit to in order to mitigate and adapt to climate change. For the most part, this comprises means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions within each nation.
What they found was shocking. Whilst the NDCs each country is asked to submit are technically non-binding commitments, one could be forgiven for hoping that, with the self-evident existential threat of climate change, governments plans would have had enough teeth to avert catastrophe. Instead, the UN has found that, in aggregate, the NDCs of the Paris signatories are greatly lacking in ambition and will lead the world down a very dangerous path.
They found that, if all the current NDCs pledged by member states were implemented, the world would be facing an average warming of 2.6-2.8°C, blowing out of the water the 2°C limit after which more catastrophic effects of climate change are likely to be seen. On top of this, the UN analysis showed that, given current national policies, countries are unable to even implement all of the commitments they have made under their previous NDCs. Given this, if nothing were to change in the political environment to allow for these NDCs to be given the go-ahead, the degree of warming we can expect to see approaches 3.1°C.
This would spell an existential and era-defining catastrophe.
A report issued back in 2018 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which delineated the likely impacts of 1.5°C of warming on human and environmental systems, projected a number of detrimental consequences for this level of warming. It told an alarming narrative that included the disappearance of the polar ice sheets, a marked increase in the intensity of extreme heat around the world, and the collapse of entire ecosystems. Considering that, according to established climate theory, the effects of warming do not scale linearly with temperature increases - as the climate warms, there are certain ‘tipping points’ that become activated whereby the environmental system reorganises itself, often irreversibly. This is likely to cause extensive upheaval to human societies and the environment.
Our climate destiny?
Whilst the report itself was met with a gloom-and-doom attitude by most climate thinkers and activists, the authors were keen to point out that there are measures that can be put in place to get us on the right track moving forward. Yet it cannot be met with empty gestures and tepid rhetoric any longer.
“The new NDCs and their implementation must collectively cut 42 per cent off greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 to get on a least-cost pathway for 1.5°C. Looking out to 2035, emissions must fall by 57 per cent,” shared the lead author on the report, Inger Andersen, in a press statement. “In annual terms, we need to shave 7.5 per cent off emissions every year until 2035, a figure that will grow with each year of inaction.”
No simple challenge. The size of the challenge is underscored by new figures showing the growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is continuing to accelerate; from 2022 levels, they have risen by 1.3% annually, in comparison to a 0.8% annual increase in the preceding decade (2010-19). Clearly, without having yet reached peak carbon, trying to rein in emissions will be nigh-on impossible without “overcoming formidable policy, governance, institutional and technical barriers.”
To overcome this, we need global climate mobilisation at a level never seen before.
“Nations can deliver the cuts needed by investing heavily in solar and wind energy, in forests, in reforming the buildings, transport and industry sectors, and more – all backed by a whole-of-government approach, a new global financial architecture and strong private sector action,” Andersen revealed.
But the burden of climate action cannot be shared equally; given how the vast majority of current and historic emissions are generated by the world’s largest economies (the G20, to be specific), it is essential that those who are most guilty in driving climate change are those to do the heavy lifting with regards to finding a solution. Of all GHGs emitted throughout 2023, over 77% can be attributed to G20 nations. Conversely, all 55 African Union nations combined contributed a paltry 5%.
The asymmetries are evident.
COP29 - The climate finance summit
Analysts are hoping that the recent COP29 climate change summit, this year held in Baku, will hold at least some of the answers moving forward.
Touted as the climate finance summit, attendees were expected to agree upon measures to fund the global south and developing nations, to support them to both develop more sustainably and mitigate the effects of climate change. This is seen as the next climate financing stepping stone, following commitments made at COP15 (2009) to pledge $100 billion annually to support said nations, a goal only achieved two years ago. At this year’s event, attendees were set to negotiate a new settlement to replace this figure, as the demands of climate change become more and more severe.
However, a number of questions for the next settlement remain. The first surrounds sufficiency; on the face of it, $100 billion seems like a lot of money, yet pales in comparison to the sum that is truly needed. According to a recent UN report, trillions of dollars annually will be required to safeguard affected nations, yet a figure like this hardly seems forthcoming from this year’s event. The second surrounds repayments; of the $115.6 billion committed in 2022, 69% of this was in the form of loans to developing nations. As these nations are also more likely to have huge debt burdens, the provision of climate financing is only going to exacerbate this, and does not represent developed nations paying their fair share.
There are, in particular, questions surrounding who pays what. With the European Union, certainly one of the world’s largest emitters, currently providing the majority of funds, there are growing calls for countries with even greater emissions - namely China - to pay a greater proportion of the sum. China flatly denies these requests, given the pledges they have already made towards making climate progress.
Of greater concern now, given the recent election results in the US, is the potential that Donald Trump, now voted to be President for a second time, will wind back commitments under the Paris Agreement, after he previously pulled the country out of the agreement when he entered power back in 2016. He has already committed to doing so again.
Both of these factors considered, the negotiations this year are likely to be more fraught and expectations have immediately been wound back. In particular, with much of the agenda focusing on the next round of NDCs - submitted by nations every 5 years - there are concerns that they will yet again be insufficient to meet the scale of the challenge.
How NDCs need to change
So, what would we need to see in the next suite of NDCs to facilitate meaningful progress to limiting further catastrophe?
All the evidence points to the fact that emissions - i.e. climate change mitigation - need to be reduced drastically, if we are to have any chance of maintaining warming within tolerable levels. And, with the newly defined NDCs of certain countries, including the UK and Brazil, including emissions pledges outstripping those laid out in the report here presented, there is cautious cause for optimism.
There are two factors of which we need to be cognisant: first, the effects of climate change are already under full swing, as we have seen with the deadly heatwaves in Pakistan, the record-breaking strength of Hurricane Milton, and the unprecedented flooding in Valencia. This means that human and environmental systems have already changed, possibly irrevocably, meaning that it is essential we adapt these systems to be more resilient as the effects of this manifest. Whether this means protecting our coasts against rising sea levels or adapting our built infrastructure to favour natural cooling during the summer months, a greater level of investment will be needed across the world to protect ourselves.
At the end of the UN report, the authors included a section where they went into depth about how climate mitigation measures can be put into practice and discussed potential tactics, broken down by sector (e.g. forestry, agriculture, transportation), for how they can be implemented. Whilst encouraging, this just serves to underscore the absence of any suggestions around adaptation.
For example, despite providing detailed analysis of how it is of imperative necessity to maximise the energy efficiency of buildings, ensure new buildings are built with greater focus on low-energy heating and cooling, and allow existing buildings to be retrofitted accordingly, this was always framed within the context of reducing emissions. The word ‘adaptation’ was mentioned three times throughout the entirety of the report, two of which were in the appendices.
We believe there needs to be a more radical shift in thinking moving forward. Looking back to the previous round of NDCs, we see that only 81% of nations even included adaptation measures when they were released 5 years ago. Here at Shade the UK, we strive to boost awareness around the risks of extreme heat and educate the public and decision-makers alike on how built infrastructure could be one of the strongest bulwarks we have. Therefore, given that countries are currently in the process of submitting their latest NDCs, we would like to propose the following recommendations to ensure that adaptation receives more attention on the global stage:
Mandatory Heatwave-Resilient Building Regulations: All Paris signatories should submit a dedicated section of their NDCs on how they will update building regulations to be more resilient to extremes of temperature, permitting low-energy heating in summer and passive cooling in summer.
Retrofitting Pledge: All countries must commit to a date at which all existing buildings within their borders will be retrofitted to reflect heat-resilient principles, alongside a detailed roadmap for implementation.
International Heatwave Fund: Seeing that heatwaves are presenting a stronger and stronger humanitarian threat, the international response to them should be considered as such. An international heatwave fund, primarily funded by wealthier nations, should be set up to facilitate the distribution of emergency capital for when life-threatening heatwaves strike.
Early Warning System: Nations must commit to developing full contingency plans and early warnings systems to both alert their populations of impending heatwaves and implement measures so as to protect them. These plans should be assessed by professional emergency responders and climate experts.
We believe that, if there were to be greater commitment to these more basic principles of climate action on the international stage, we as a society could move closer to a future where climate change, particularly that which has already occurred, needlessly claims no lives.
If you would like to find out more about our work here at Shade the UK, please contact us at info@shadetheuk.co.uk.
